Memphis, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

500
FXUS64 KMEG 242353 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
653 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 653 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

- Scattered showers and storms, potentially bringing heavy rain or
  gusty winds, are anticipated Saturday afternoon and evening.

- Dangerous, oppressive heat and humidity arrive Sunday.
  Temperatures will reach the upper 90s, with heat indices of 105
  or greater expected daily through the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Scattered showers with some embedded, isolated thunderstorms
continue to move across the Mid-South with a warm front slowly
lifting northward. While some dry air at the surface has
prevented some of the current radar echos from reaching the
surface, some observations have been reporting periods of drizzle
to light rain. Cloudiness with this system has led to
temperatures remaining a bit below guidance, so have adjusted
temperatures down a few degrees for today to account for such. A
band of some heavier showers has set up across east AR into north
MS where PWAT values are currently around 2.3" right along a
stationary boundary. This will need to be monitored into the
afternoon for some localized flooding potential. Otherwise, we
should see a small break in any shower and thunderstorm activity
in the early evening.

Overnight and into Saturday, a weak shortwave will move through
the Mid-South with the aforementioned stationary boundary slowly
lifting northward through the area. This will allow for scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop early Saturday morning,
lasting into the afternoon while slowly pushing southeastward.
PWAT values are expected to climb to around 2 to 2.5" across the
area, which puts us well above the 90th percentile. This will
allow for some heavy downpours with most CAM soundings showing a
skinny CAPE profile. While a thunderstorm or two could produce
some stronger winds, I think the localized flooding threat will
be the main concern on Saturday. CAM guidance does remain spread
on where the heaviest rainfall could occur and there is still
considerable uncertainty. I do think some portions of the Mid-
South could see some pockets of around 2" while others very well
could remain dry.

By Sunday, surface high pressure will continue to build to our
south with a very hot and humid airmass funneling into the Mid-
South. Dry conditions are expected through at least the middle of
next week, with high temperatures reaching the mid 90s on Sunday
and likely upper 90s to near 100 degrees Monday and Tuesday. With
dew point temperatures well into the 70s, heat indices will likely
reach above 105 degrees for much of the area, with many reaching
over 110 degrees. LREF probabilities of heat indices over 110
degrees are generally above 50% for locations along and west of
the MS River as early as Sunday afternoon, lasting through Tuesday
afternoon. Exact placement of Extreme Heat Warnings / Heat
Advisories is still a little too far out, but heat headlines will
certainly be needed by Sunday through at least Tuesday and
possibly Wednesday for much of the Mid-South. By Wednesday, a
back-door frontal boundary will sweep through the region, which
will allow heat indices to fall back a bit for portions of the
Mid-South. While things will still be above- normal temperature
wise, heat headlines may become more sporadic to end next week.
Uncertainty remains, but prepare for dangerous heat and humidity
through at least the first half of next week and begin to take
preparedness actions now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Light E/SE surface winds and VFR will prevail this evening. Short
term model guidance indicates W/SW return flow around 15-20KT
developing toward 06Z, in response to an upper level shortwave
trough approaching from the NW. Scattered -SHRA and perhaps -DZ
is expected between 06Z and 12Z, associated with an elevated warm
front. 12Z HREF soundings for MEM depict modest instability that
currently limit TS chances below the PRO30 threshold.

The shortwave trough will exit the Midsouth Saturday afternoon,
limiting organized TSRA potential to perhaps MKL. By this time,
however, a surface warm front will have spread through all the
TAF sites. With high surface humidity, TSRA cannot be ruled out
at any of the TAF sites Saturday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Minimal fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future as minRH
values will remain above 40% and isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will continue through Saturday. While conditions
will begin to dry out by Sunday, hot and humid conditions will
return.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...PWB