Memphis, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for 4 Miles NW Memphis TN
National Weather Service Forecast for:
4 Miles NW Memphis TN
Issued by: National Weather Service Memphis, TN |
Updated: 6:46 pm CDT Jul 8, 2025 |
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Tonight
 Chance T-storms then Slight Chance T-storms
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Wednesday
 Slight Chance T-storms then T-storms Likely
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Wednesday Night
 Chance T-storms then Chance Showers
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Thursday
 Slight Chance T-storms then T-storms Likely
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Thursday Night
 Chance T-storms
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Friday
 Chance T-storms
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Friday Night
 Slight Chance T-storms
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Saturday
 Slight Chance T-storms then Chance T-storms
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Saturday Night
 Chance T-storms
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Lo 73 °F |
Hi 89 °F |
Lo 73 °F |
Hi 91 °F |
Lo 74 °F |
Hi 93 °F |
Lo 75 °F |
Hi 94 °F |
Lo 74 °F |
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Tonight
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 4am, then a slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. |
Wednesday
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Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly between 1pm and 4pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. |
Wednesday Night
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. |
Thursday
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Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 91. Heat index values as high as 101. Southwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. |
Thursday Night
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. South wind around 5 mph. |
Friday
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A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 93. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. |
Friday Night
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly clear, with a low around 75. South southwest wind around 5 mph. |
Saturday
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A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Sunny, with a high near 94. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. |
Saturday Night
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. |
Sunday
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A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 93. Chance of precipitation is 60%. |
Sunday Night
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 73. |
Monday
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A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. |
Monday Night
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. |
Tuesday
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A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 95. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for 4 Miles NW Memphis TN.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
895
FXUS64 KMEG 082320
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
620 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 619 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025
- Hot and humid conditions will continue through the next seven
days or so, with afternoon heat indices in the upper 90s and low
100s. Daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms will help
provide brief relief in daytime heat indices.
- There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms today, mainly
along and north of Interstate 40. The primary risk will be
damaging winds and a localized flash flooding threat.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025
A typical summer day is underway with temperatures currently in the
mid to upper 80s. A weak shortwave is slowly pivoting across the Mid-
South sparking showers and thunderstorms north of I-40. In addition
to showers and thunderstorms, advancing cloud coverage is generally
providing a brief relief in scorching conditions as air temperatures
are hovering slightly cooler than 24 hours ago.
Peak daytime heating combined with lift from the aforementioned
shortwave, opens a marginal severe weather window this afternoon and
evening. Latest surface analysis depicts roughly 1500-2000 J/kg of
mixed layer and surface based CAPE. While there is ample
instability, there is nil shear and mid-level lapse rates are
negligible. Nonetheless, a quick microburst bringing some strong
winds is not off the table for areas along and north of I-40.
Localized flooding is something to monitor as PWs today hover around
2", which is in the 90th percentile for this time of year. This
shortwave weakens significantly after sunset leaving isolated to
scattered coverage into the overnight hours.
As the shortwave is impinged on due to a 598 dam ridge over the
Four Corners region, severe weather chances are squashed and
largely diurnally driven PoPs reign for the rest of the week. A
storm or two could go rogue, but any afternoon storms should
remain sub- severe through the work week.
A soggy weekend is in store as a deep, positively tilted trough will
track across the Great Lakes Region beginning Friday. The origin and
track of this trough will allow for a more zonal pattern aloft,
which favors embedded shortwaves continuing rain chances through the
weekend. Probabilities from the NBM are low (less than 20%) for 24
hour accumulations exceeding 1" through the weekend. PW values are
expected to return to near climatology for this weekend, which
should limit any flooding concerns through early next week.
DNM
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025
Showers and thunderstorms continue across the airspace this
evening with thunder chances quickly diminishing from west to
east. The greatest chance for thunder over the next few hours will
be at TUP before all activity dies off by 03Z. VFR CIGs will
persist through Wednesday with yet another round of thunderstorms
possible in the afternoon.
ANS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025
Seasonal warm and humid conditions will prevail through the
upcoming weekend. Wetting rainfall will be possible each day, but
most likely during the middle to late part of this week. 20 foot
winds will remain light, except with thunderstorm outflows.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...ANS
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